In the first half of this year, shipments were greatly pressured by the growing shortage of materials in the upstream supply chain. The research department expects the DHL (Dell, HP, Lenovo) and double A (Acer, Asustek) and other brands of factories rush season shipments, so the shortage is likely to get worsen. But with slowing demand in the fourth quarter and new capacity coming on stream, the imbalance is expected to improve significantly.
Looking at the supply shortage in the PC market after the second quarter, DigiTimes Research found that up to the end of the second quarter, shortages of panel modules, on-board ICs and processors were still more than 10 percent higher. In the panel module, from the drive IC, power management IC (PMIC), timing control chip (T-CON IC) to IC board components, the gap is not improved. In addition, in the IC part of the board, including audio IC, USB control IC, PMIC and other components, there is also a shortage of more than 10%, making the overall gap between the supply and demand of the laptop still reaches double digits.
Digitimes Research estimated that the supply gap of drive ICs and PMIC has not been improved, and the supply of USB control ICs has also worsen due to the crowding out of the demand for automotive and communications ICs. At the same time, the overall demand for CPU and GPU processors in the IC load-board segment will be increased due to e-sports, game consoles, mining and data centers, etc., and the gap will continue to increase in the second half of the year.
In addition, the shortage of GPUs from the second half of last year to this year is still limited by adverse factors such as upstream capacity and lack of loads, which will expand the gap when the traditional consumption peak season enters in the second half of this year.
Digitimes Research, however, expects lower demand for NB in the fourth quarter as the global epidemic gradually improves and some new or replacement IC capacity will be launched by then, leading to an improvement in supply.
Due to the shortage of material, DigiTimes Research expects global laptop shipments to rise quarter on quarter in the first half of this year, after peaking at 62 million units in the second quarter, to slow quarter on quarter in the second quarter, and to decline simultaneously quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, with shipments only around 57 million units per quarter. That’s down slightly from 57.5 million in the first quarter of this year.
Post time: Jul-14-2021